The Race Hits High Gear: Polls Diverge as the "Final Nine" Step Out

This week, the "shadow boxing" phase of the leadership race ended. With the candidate field officially locked at nine names and the first major post-deadline polls released, the battle lines for May 30 are now clearly drawn.

1. The Polling Disruption

The biggest news of the week was the divergence between two major polls.

• The Member Favorite: A Pallas Data poll (March 2) revealed Caroline Elliott as the current front-runner among decided Conservative supporters with 15%.

• The Public Favorite: Conversely, a Research Co. poll (March 5) showed that Darrell Jones remains the most recognizable and "favourably viewed" candidate among the general public (20%), while many other candidates still struggle with name recognition below 15%.

2. The "Interior Pivot"

While the media focused on polling, the "Establishment" candidates spent the week shoring up regional points:

• Peter Milobar capitalized on his recent wave of seven MLA endorsements, focusing his campaign activity on the Thompson-Okanagan region. His strategy is clear: dominate the weighted points in the Interior to offset any popular-vote lead in the Lower Mainland.

• Iain Black made a high-profile stop in Lumby, emphasizing his Cabinet experience. He is positioning himself as the "fiscal adult" in the room, specifically targeting voters concerned about BC’s $13.3 billion deficit.

3. The "Final Nine" Confirmed

The party officially confirmed the ballot order following the February 28 withdrawal of MLAs Sheldon Clare and Steve Kooner. The remaining nine candidates—Banman, Bhangu, Black, Elliott, Findlay, Fulmer, Hamm, Jones, and Milobar—are now entering the most expensive phase of the race.

Weekly Blue Score Adjustments

• Caroline Elliott (UP ⬆️): Her #1 spot in the Pallas poll gives her a significant "Momentum" boost this week.

• Darrell Jones (STABLE ➡️): High public favorability keeps his probability high, but he needs to convert that public "fame" into official party memberships before April 18.

• Peter Milobar (STABLE ➡️): His "Endorsement" score remains the highest in the field, keeping him in a dead heat for the top spot.

What to Watch Next Week

• The Fundraising Sprint: Candidates are rushing to meet the April 1 Fee Deadline, where they must pay an additional $40,000 to stay on the ballot.

• Membership Drives: Watch for "Super Saturday" events as campaigns push to sign up new members before the April 18 cutoff.